With election only five days away I figured I'd take a shot and make some prognostications on the outcome. Given the events that have transpired in the last week here in Minnesota this seems like a rather foolhardy proposition as a lot can happen in the next five days. Anyway here's my unscientific, completely non-poll driven, wild ass guesses at what will happen on November 5th:

Secretary of State
Despite having one of the hokiest commercials of all time featuring her grandchildren Republican Mary Kiffmeyer should retain the office. DFLer "Buck" Humphrey hasn't really electrified the voters or given them any real reason to vote for him and I think that Kiffmeyer's handling of the balloting issues after Wellstone's death was professional and above board which solidifies her position.

Attorney General
Democrat Mike Hatch should easily win reelection which means we'll be forced to watch him take on every cause that allows him to be prominently featured in the media whether it's really within the scope of his office or not.

State Auditor
Who knows and who cares? I'll take Eagan mayor and Republican Pat Awada here just because her victory would really irritate the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Ted Mondale both of whom she has battled over affordable housing. I know nothing about her opponent other than that her last name is Johnson. Sadly enough that might be enough in Minnesota to win the seat.

Governor
To steal a bit from the Simpson's, "Mr. Pawlenty your campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?". After getting off to a slow start and then having to overcome a bit of a campaign financing mess Republican Tim Pawlenty seems to be pulling away down the home stretch. He's been sharp and scored well during the last few debates and his stance on the marked drivers licenses for visa holders definitely bolstered his support. The Star Tribune's endorsement of Independence Party candidate Tim Penny probably helped Pawlenty and hurt Penny among center/right voters and the DFL's Roger Moe seems lost and disoriented since Wellstone's death. Barring an unforeseen event in the next few days Pawlenty should be the next governor.


Congress 1st District
Incumbent GOPer Gil Gutknecht should have an easy victory here.

Congress 2nd District
This will be a close race but I think the voters of the second district have had enough of incumbent Democrat Bill Luther. John Kline will eek out a win in this nasty battle. He cause probably has not been helped by some of the worst scare ads I've ever heard attacking Luther for his opposition to the Yucca mountain nuclear waste site. Kline's campaign didn't produce the ads but their attempts to frighten soccer moms is offensive. Luther can hardly claim the high ground either with his campaign's involvement in the phony candidacy of Sam Garst. This has been an ugly race.

Congress 3rd District
Moderate Republican incumbent Jim Ramstad should cake walk to another term.

Congress 4th District
Another easy call here as incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum wins.

Congress 5th District
Long time incumbent Democrat Martin Olav Sabo doesn't even has to campaign anymore as this district, made up mostly of the city of Minneapolis, is lopsidedly DFL. Another two years for Sabo.

Congress 6th District
There actually is a real race here between Republican incumbent Mark Kennedy and DFL challenger Janet Robert. Kennedy should hold on to his seat although he should also hide his head in shame for having produced the most embarrassing radio ads of all time featuring his nausea inducing brothers and sisters.

Congress 7th District
Another incumbent wins in a breeze as Democrat Collin Peterson goes back to Washington for a 7th term.


Congress 8th District
Call me crazy but I think ex-Yankee Bob Lemon has a real shot here... oh wait it's Bob Lemen running as a Republican. DFL incumbent James Obestar, first elected during the Nixon administration, keeps his seat.

And the now the Big Daddy race of the year in Minnesota the U.S. Senate seat
My heart says that Republican Norm Coleman deserves to and will win this race. But my head says that Democrat Walter Mondale will prevail. I just have no confidence in the ability of the Minnesota electorate to make the logical decision. I mean Jesse is our governor for Chris sakes. The one factor that could allow Coleman to win is turnout. Usually higher turnout benefits the Democrats but in this case if more people vote, particularly younger people Coleman could do it. Traditional Democrats will show up and vote for the Wellstone legacy and for Mondale's name. Older people almost always vote in high numbers and Mondale should so well among them. But if the same group of young, usually politically apathetic, often first time voters that turned out in 1998 and made Jesse Ventura governor get interested this time around and head to the polls it could be to Coleman's advantage. They don't know Mondale from his earlier career and may view him as old and out of touch. Coleman on the other hand appears as an energetic guy who gets things done (like bringing hockey to St. Paul) and they likely share Coleman's views on social security and Iraq. This race comes down to a generational battle of who shows up. Unfortunately I gotta give it to the gray hairs. Mondale wins.

Labels: Politics-Local (02-03)

Posted by Chad--Link