The Numbers That Really Count
If you want a look at how the 2004 election might turn out based on polls on a state by state basis, check out Election Projection 2004 Edition. Right now it shows Kerry taking Bush in the electoral college 291 to 247.
It's an interesting way to project the election even though we're still many months away. However, it should be noted that this is the first time that these projections have shown Bush losing the election, and, as recently as December 2003, they had him trouncing an unnamed Democrat in electoral votes 467 to 71. As with all polls, take it with a grain or two of salt.
(With a nod to Tim Blair)