Tuesday, July 13, 2010

More on the Favorable Twins Schedule

Last Saturday, I commented on the Twins favorable upcoming schedule. I have now updated the stats through the all-star break and have looked at a couple of others. The result is that the second half schedule looks even more favorable to the Twins than I first thought.

The Twins are 3.5 games behind the White Sox and 3 games behind the Tigers. Not only have they faced tougher opponents (.511 winning percentage versus .489 for the White Sox and .482 for the Tigers) but the Twins have also played two fewer home games than away. The White Sox have played five more home games than road games and the Tigers have played 4 more home games than road games.

In addition, the Twins’ remaining road opponents have a weak .479 winning percentage. At Target Field, where the Twins have generally played well, their opponents have a .489 win percentage.

So, the schedule is a good reason to look forward to the second half of the season. On the other hand, Atomizer would counter with another statistic: Ron Gardenhire is likely to manage all 74 remaining Twins games.

The Elder Chimes In: The WSJ had another sports simulation yesterday which supposedly showed the odds of the various American League teams winning their division and making the playoffs:

Team Win Division Make Playoffs

New York Yankees 76.8% 96%
Tampa Bay Rays 20.3% 74.5%
Boston Red Sox 2.9% 19.6%
Toronto Blue Jays 0.0% 0.6%
Baltimore Orioles 0% 0%

Detroit Tigers 38% 41.2%
Chicago White Sox 36.3% 39%
Minnesota Twins 25.6% 28.6%
Kansas City Royals 0.1% 0.2%
Cleveland Indians 0% 0%

Texas Rangers 95.5% 95.8%
Los Angeles Angels 4.1% 4.1%
Oakland Athletics 0.4% 0.4%
Seattle Mariners 0% 0%

I don't really like the Twins chances as shown here, but things could be worse. We could live in Cleveland.

Indians Fans: So you're saying we have chance?

Rest of the World: No, you have no chance.

SISYPHUS ADDS: The Wall Street Journal must be impressed with the Tigers and White Sox's combined 12-0 record against Pittsburgh and Washington -- two of the National League's worst teams whom the Twins do not get to play.