The recent bounce that President Obama apparently has received after the DNC-still not sure how significant or lasting it really is-has many Republicans openly worrying about Romney’s prospects in November. I remain relatively unconcerned and still fairly confident that he will defeat President Obama. My confidence isn’t based on any in-depth analysis of the latest polls or electoral college projections on how key states will swing or comparisons with previous elections based on economic data. Instead, it’s more of a hunch based on observations and anecdotal experiences. There are three reasons why I believe Romney will win:
- I’ve spoken to more than a few people who voted for Obama in 2008 and now are going to vote for Romney. Is anyone who voted for McCain in 2008 going to go the other way? It seems unlikely that we’ll see much of that. So whatever change we see between how people voted in 2008 versus 2012 should be in Romney’s favor.
- While I still hear from a few conservatives who are not going to support Romney, it seems like most of the those on the right have come around-however grudgingly-to swallow whatever qualms they have about Romney’s true conservative credentials and vote for him. Having Ryan on the ticket has certainly helped as have the antics of the media and Democrats over the last few months. I’ve long been a skeptic of Romney, but have found myself being pushed more and more into his camp by the blatant bias of most of the media and the dishonest attacks from Democrats. Sure, some conservatives will still elect to sit this one out or vote for a third party candidate, but I doubt if there are going to be many.
- My last reason may be more wishful thinking than anything else. However, with the Obama Administration’s egregious efforts to infringe upon the Catholic Church’s religious liberty, with President Obama’s open support of gay marriage, and with the recent DNC battle cry seeming to have changed to “abort early and often” instead of “safe, legal, and rare” I can’t help but believe that Catholics who maintain at least some semblance of fidelity to the teachings of the Church will not, in good conscience, be able to vote for President Obama. This doesn’t mean that some won’t put aside their conscience along with the teachings of the Church of course, but there’s no way that number will be as high as it was in 2008.
Between voters who recognize the mistake they made in 2008, conservatives who recognize the true choice they face, and Catholics who recognize their conscience, Romney should pick up just enough support to turn the race in his favor. Just a hunch.
The Nihilist Concurs: to add to Chad's point #1, I would expect voter turnout to be down from 2008 levels. I'd expect that a statistically significant number of Obama voters from 2008 stay in their parent's basements in 2012. I don't expect the same from McCain voters. A supposition related to point #3: the gay marriage issue may dampen some of the enthusiasm of black evangelical voters for Obama. Maybe the percentages won't change, but some of those people may stay home as well.