Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Cause and Effect?

On October 1, US Senate candidate Mike McFadden appears on widely listened to podcast The Hinderaker-Ward Experience.

Breaking news from one week later:

A new SurveyUSA/KSTP poll finds that Democratic U.S. Sen. Al Franken had an 18 percentage point advantage over Republican Mike McFadden, a larger lead than any previous poll.
According to the poll, 55 percent of people said they would vote for Franken and 37 said they would vote for McFadden. The poll, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2, surveyed 577 likely voters and had a 4.1 percentage point plus or minus margin of error.
It found that Franken's lead doubled from nine percent in the pollster's September survey.

Well, for the record, I thought his appearance went well!

If, all things being equal, the simplest explanation is also the most likely explanation, maybe it's not our fault.

Minnesota is a notoriously difficult state to poll.  That's a charitable way of saying that media polls have routinely inflated the predicted vote for Democrats.  We'll have to mark this media poll down for special scrutiny come the morning of November 5.  It's either a prescient harbinger of a wholly unexpected Democrat party rout in the middle of what could be a Republican landslide elsewhere, or it's just the same old embarasingly irresponsible media polling.

Time will tell. and the fate of future candidate appearances on the Hinderaker Ward Experience hangs in the balance.