Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Baby Blue

With little forethought and no promises of insight, here are my last minute 2014 election predictions.

Minnesota Congressional Races

Most of these races are not going to be nail biters.

Walz by 8

Kline by 12

Paulsen by 9

McCollum by 22

Ellison by 26 (sigh)

Emmer by 8

This is where things could get interesting. I still expect Colin Peterson to prevail in the end, but it will be much closer than in previous years. Peterson by 4

This is where things WILL get interesting. A decade ago it would have been laughable to suggest that the Eighth District would be become the most hotly contested congressional seat in Minnesota, but since 2010 that has been the case. It will be a close contest once again and I see it flipping again this time to challenger Stewart Mills. He’ll take it by 1

Minnesota Senate
I’m going out on a limb here and predicting that the DFL will maintain control.

Minnesota House
Without drilling down into any of the races, I’m going to predict that Republicans will just barely regain control of the House.

US Senate
Mike McFadden has run a good campaign and Al Franken has done nothing in his six years in the Senate to deserve reelection. Alas, voters in Minnesota seem unable to perceive this and I see Franken winning in a race that will be closer than the polls indicate, but not as close as it should be. Franken by 6

Minnesota Governor
I’ve long been a big fan of Jeff Johnson and have enthusiastically supported his run for governor. However, I think his campaign has lacked focus and he missed opportunities to target Dayton on issues such as MNsure that could have tipped the balance in his favor. Like the Senate race this will be closer than most polls have indicated, but Dayton will emerge victorious (sigh redux). Dayton by 5

From a local perspective, I expect that every candidate and cause I support will lose as usual (sigh hat trick). On the broader stage, I do expect the GOP to win enough seats to control the Senate and increase their majority in the House. For a Republican in a deep blue district it will be a day to vote locally and celebrate nationally.