Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Outside Looking In

This is the second straight presidential election in which I will be following the results from outside the country (and the morning after rather than the night of). It’s a bit of strange experience to be on the outside looking in. Based on conversations with taxi drivers and coworkers over the last few days the whole world will be watching too.

So what will we see?

Skipping right to the big event this is how I think the electoral college will look like once the dust has settled.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

With the possible exception of Utah, it’s not much different from what most polls and pundits are predicting. While the race has had more than its share of ups and downs for both candidates the underlying Democratic advantage in the electoral college should be enough to propel Hillary to the promised land.

The one caveat is that if there is ever a year where the loser’s lament that the “polls are all wrong” could indeed prove to be correct it’s 2016. We all have learned by now that this year anything is possible (even though still not probable).

In the Senate, the GOP will narrowly maintain control. They will lose seats in the House, but still retain their majority.

Finally, every candidate I voted for in my senate district, house district, school board, and judicial races will lose. That’s a lock in any year no matter how unpredictable it might otherwise be.